Win-Draw-Win Successful Betting Strategies in Soccer

Soccer Betting Strategy: Betting on Win-Draw-Win 

There’s no denying that online soccer betting has evolved significantly over the past few years, especially when it comes to the options you have for betting on soccer games. Not only are there a huge number of betting markets to choose from, but there are equally as many different varieties of wagers. You can bet on the total number of goals to be scored in a game, for example. Or place a wager on which player will score the first goal. Other wagers include the double chance, the draw no bet, the Asian handicap and the win-draw-win bet. This list would be endless if we continued, but that’s not the intent of this article.

The more experienced bettors probably think back to a simpler time when the only online bet placed on a soccer game was the win-draw-win. If you wanted to get some money down on a game, your only choice was to pick one of the three available selections. Either team to win, or the game to end in a draw. These three possibilities are what gave the bet its name. The win-draw-win wager is still by far the most popular bet on soccer today. Despite all the other options, many bettors prefer just to punt directly online on the results of a game with a sportsbook like 22Bet Sportsbook. This is understandable, as it’s certainly the most straightforward method. There’s nothing remotely complicated or difficult about the win-draw-win wager.

Winning Soccer Bets Is Not Straightforward

It’s an online bet that can be relatively easy to get right and you can happily end the day with the football jackpot. There are lots of soccer games where the outcome is pretty obvious, even to those who know little about the sport. Choosing the winner of a game where one team is much stronger than the other isn’t especially challenging.

But don’t imagine this means that it’s easy to make money from online betting on the win-draw-win markets. It’s really not. Yes, there are games where there’s going to be an obvious winner. But when it’s obvious to us, it’s also obvious to the bookmakers too. So they set the odds accordingly. These are not set to favour you. Obvious winners will typically be at very low odds, which means they rarely offer any value. So they’re not guaranteed to win anyway, as upsets in soccer are very common. This can be true even if a team seems almost certain to win.

Yes, it’s true that backing obvious winners CAN be profitable. But it’s not as simple as just looking for games and automatically backing the favourite. You have to consider many other factors too. There are instances when taking a punt on the underdog or betting on the draw is going to be the better option. Note that the key here is in learning how to identify value.

Finding Value in the Win-Draw-Win Markets

If you’re serious about making money online from betting on soccer, or any other sport for that matter, then it’s important to be familiar with the roles that value and probability will play. It’s absolutely essential that you understand the concept of value in the context of betting. As well as how it relates to probability. If you don’t, then your chances of success are going to be extremely limited. A large part of your decision-making process is going to be value, regardless of what events you’re betting on.

Identifying value when betting on the result of a soccer game begins with guessing the likelihood of each possible outcome. Of course, we can’t possibly calculate precise probabilities. There are simply too many variables. But with the right approach, we can certainly come up with rough estimates which are good enough to work with. The important thing is to consider as many variables as possible. Most sports gamblers do nothing other than look at the relative quality between the two teams. Although this is a pretty good indicator of which team is more likely to win a game, it’s just not enough. You have to want to be as precise as possible in your estimates.

Win-Draw-Win Example: FC Barcelona Vs Girona

For example, imagine FC Barcelona are about to play Girona in La Liga. The season is ten games in, and Barca is top of the table. Girona is languishing down in 18th place. Barca’s squad is filled with world-class players, while Girona has much less talent. What’s your first thought here? Would FC Barcelona be 80% likely to win? Maybe even as high as 90%? After all, they’re a top-quality side, so it’s not unreasonable to assume that their possibilities of being victorious are somewhere up in this region. But now if we take a closer look at Girona, we discover the following….

• The new season started with a new manager, who brought with him a whole new playing style.
• Three new players were signed, but two of them were injured at the beginning of the season.
• Out of their first ten games, Girona played some very tough games.
• Now the injured players are back on the team. Meaning that Girona started to improve their game.
• They were able to win their last two games.

What do you think now? Maybe you’re starting to reconsider how likely Barca might win. Of course, they’re still the favourites. Yet maybe their chances of success with the win-draw-win bet are closer to 70% in reality. Now let’s imagine that we assess FC Barcelona in more detail and find out the following.

• Their game against Girona comes just three days after they’ve been on the road taking part in the UEFA Champions League.
• It was a long trip and a very rough game.
• Two of their star players are injured and will miss the match against Girona.

Outcome Changing Factors

Surely this must affect your outlook on the match. With this in mind, the game doesn’t look so easy for Barca now. In truth, you’d probably still expect them to win, but you’re not going to be quite as confident as you were before. Looking at all this information, maybe their winning chances are more like 60-65%. That is a massive drop from 80% or 90%. This you lead you to change your initial jackpot winning strategies.

The first point we’re making here is that there are many things that can affect the outcome of a game of soccer and how it’s likely to play out. We need to assess a game in detail before placing our win-draw-win bets and refrain from making any quick assumptions. Here’s a list of some of the key factors that need to be examined more closely.

• Overall Quality
• Current Form
• Styles of Play
• Recent Schedules
• Injuries & Suspensions
• Motivation

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Assessing Factors Affecting Soccer Games

So, how is assessing all of these factors helpful? Basically, they enable us to be more accurate when making estimates of the probabilities of the final results. This allows us to see more clearly whether there’s any value in placing using your bankroll on a game. Let’s continue with the hypothetical game under discussion. Imagine we’ve settled on the following probabilities.

• Barca to win – 60%
• Girona to win – 15%
• Draw – 25%

Take note that you don’t have to establish a precise probability when assessing the possible results. A rough percentage range is fine. We’re using exact numbers here to make it easier to demonstrate the process to you of identifying value bets.

Now, once you have your estimates, you then compare them to the implied probability of the relevant odds. Implied probability is when you use the odds to indicate what are the chances of an outcome happening. For example, odds of even money, have an implied probability of 50%. These odds imply that the relevant outcome is as likely to happen as not. Following on from this, if the odds are 3.00 (2/1), then the implied probability is 33.33%. These odds tell you that the result is 33.33% likely to happen.

How To Calculate Implied Probability Odds

To calculate the implied probability of odds for yourself, simply divide 1 by the decimal format odds, and then convert the result into a percentage by multiplying it with 100. To save time and effort, there’s an easier method which is to utilise an odds convertor tool that will do all the maths for you.

With the above calculations in mind, let’s have a look at the odds for the Barca versus Girona game.

• Barca to win – 1.40
• Girona to win – 8.00
• Draw – 3.75

By calculating the implied probability for each set of odds, you’ll see the following.

• FC Barcelona to win – 1.40 = 71.43%
• Girona to win – 8.00 = 12.50%
• Draw – 3.75 = 26.67%

So what do these numbers tell you? Well, NOT to back Barcelona to win! That’s because there’s no value for you. This is because the implied probability of the odds is higher than your estimated chances of them winning. So we’re going to be better off by not backing Barca with this match, in spite of the fact that we think it’s the most likely result. Now you might think this is entirely counter-intuitive. As it does to a lot of punters. After all, it’s only logical to always bet on what you think is going to happen. But even though it appears to be logical, it’s far from the correct approach.

The Importance Of Finding Value

Keep in mind that when betting for value, you must assume that your estimates are accurate. To that end, we’d expect a win-draw-win wager on Barca here to win 60% of the time. So it follows that if we placed similar bets 10x, we’d therefore expect Barca to win six of them. This might seem like a sure thing. But look at the odds. They are 1.40, meaning you’d surely lose money. If you were betting $100 a pop, you’d stand to win a total of $360 on your winning bets. But you’d end up losing $400 on your wagers that failed, leaving you with a net loss of $40.

Now that you understand there’s no value in backing FC Barcelona, we need to do the same research into their opponent. When we take a closer look at Girona, we can spot VALUE! Yes, it’s only marginal. That’s because our estimated probability stands at 15%. With the implied probability being 12.50%. Nevertheless, this would still be a winning bet. In spite of only winning 15% of the time, you’ll see an overall profit in the long term thanks to the odds being high enough.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what value betting is all about. It’s about carefully playing wagers only for LONG TERM profit. It’s not about trying to win as many single bets as possible. Provided that you go through the above process every time you wager the win-draw-win, then you’ll be making money. you can try this out by heading over to 22Bet Sportsbook. Not only do they cover a huge number of football betting markets with great odds, but they also offer all new players a great welcome bonus of 122% up to €100 to get started with.

Favourites Versus Underdogs Versus Draws

Many soccer punters ask whether it’s better to focus on backing the favourites when betting on win-draw-win markets. Or conversely, whether you should be looking at sports to back the underdog or the draw. In truth, this will come down to personal preference. As well as your risk-averse attitude. But at the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter. That’s because there’s no set right or wrong here. Just as long as you’re always placing online wagers for value, then you may win the jackpot online.

In this example, we can see that the favourite didn’t offer any value. To be frank, the favourites NEVER offer value. And this goes especially to big favourites that have very low odds. But having said that, it’s possible for favourites to offer some value, even with extremely low odds.

There are distinct advantages to backing favourites. For a start, it’s a lot easier to pick value favourites than it is to pick value underdogs. As a bonus, you’re likely to win a high percentage of your bets. This allows you to be more aggressive with your bankroll management. Which in turn can help your bankroll grow faster.

Backing Big Favourites In Soccer

If you prefer to bet on underdogs, that has its merits as well. But for obvious reasons, it can be harder to find suitable opportunities. But if you can spot them, then these opportunities can certainly prove to be profitable. In truth, you won’t win that often. But it’s worth considering that the online payouts will be much better. It’s also a lot more satisfying winning a bet on an underdog as opposed to a favourite. Just keep in mind that the goal is to make money, not support your favourite team.

Win-Draw-Win Betting: Predicting Upsets in Soccer

When it comes to backing draws, there really isn’t much to say. It’s not something we recommend you do very often, for a number of reasons. Obviously, the most logical games to back for a draw are where the two teams are closely matched in playing strength and style. With teams that are closely matched, it’s very difficult to know how the game is going to turn out. All it needs is a narrow victory for either team. In the circumstances, this is just as likely as the draw. So it’s hard to confidently make probabilities in order to actually determine whether there’s any value present.

Additional Tips for Betting on Win-Draw-Win Bets

There are some other pieces of advice we recommend that you follow when placing bets on the soccer win-draw-win markets. These are listed below. On the whole, they apply to soccer betting in general. And though they’re all pretty straightforward, each one can all make a difference to your overall money-making chances.

• Bet on familiar teams
• Use proper bankroll management
• Compare available odds
• Consider alternative wagers
• Bet on familiar teams

Nothing is more vital than choosing the right games to bet on. Every day there are dozens of soccer matches being played around the world. Of course, you don’t need to bet on them all. Quite the opposite in fact. We suggest that you remain very selective with your online match choices as a means to increase your jackpot winning chances. It’s common sense to stick to games between teams that you’re familiar with. This is how to make the best use of your existing knowledge with the win-draw-win bet.

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