Confirmation Bias In Sports Betting – The Inherent Dangers And Pitfalls

Bias In Sports Betting

In a nutshell, confirmation bias is a cognitive bias. If you already believe something to be true, then you’re more likely to look for information that favours your existing point of view.  We can see this illustration clearly by looking at any of the comments on any social media platform. Nevertheless, confirmation bias is a very dangerous attribute. Especially if you are into sports betting. Or any other form of gambling for that matter

Being able to step back and be aware of your own confirmation bias, particularly in sports betting will certainly improve your abilities when it comes to placing your wagers. That’s because, in many ways, confirmation bias is a form of mental laziness. An unwillingness to be more logical or inquisitive. Being unwilling to analyse all the relevant data before you place a bet will leave you exposed to all sorts of irrational and illogical thinking. And this will certainly not help increase your jackpot winning chances.

The Dangers Of Confirmation Bias

All forms of gambling tend to punish players who believe they are capable of winning, when in fact the opposite is true. As such, this way of thinking prevents gamblers from looking at potentially better sports with better odds. Ones where they could more easily land some prizes. One classic mistake we see over and over again is the player who is absolutely confident in his newly devised strategy. He will brag to everyone within earshot, that this is the best way to generate a profit. Yet within a few wagers, it’s easy to see that they were simply suffering from confirmation bias.

In some ways, it’s not surprising that many gamblers feel a sort of “confirmation” with regards to a particular gameplay or gambling technique. More especially when it’s been bringing in some wins. A string of positive outcomes can lead to some very illogical and irrational chains of thought. The take-away ends the same. With the overconfident gambler betting the farm on a “sure bet.” Only to lose everything, previous winnings and all.

“Making Money” vs “Made Money”

A huge number of sports bettors and casino gamblers fail to understand the distinction between a technique that has been “making money” and one that has “made money.” You’ll notice that a professional sports gambler will do everything in his power to reduce the influence of luck. So if he’s found a system that’s making money, it’s because he has discovered some sort of advantage. One that doesn’t need Lady Luck to lend a generous hand. Conversely, something that has made money, just means it turned a profit. And though it yielded a positive result, this could be simply down to good luck. Many gamblers are confused. They think that just because a system has made money, then it’s guaranteed to carry on doing so. They assume that their approach to betting is working well. But if we step back, we can see this is a very naive approach.

So if you’re a gambler who’s actively looking for an edge that will bring you some profits, then it’s very difficult to avoid confirmation bias. That’s because you are driven to see positive results. Though it sounds like a counterproductive method of gambling, you may be better off assuming that every betting system will fail you. This will stop you from falling into the many traps that confirmation bias will have in wait for you. This is probably not the advice that many gamblers want to hear. After all, it sounds overly pessimistic. But if you’re unable to be self-critical when looking at your own strategies, in particular when you think they’re showing signs of early promise, then you will be on the road to losing some serious amounts of cash. As well as suffering disappointment and a hurt ego.

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Confirmation Bias In The Life

Here at Jackpotfinder.com, we believe in injecting as much logic as possible into all forms of gambling. One way of doing this is through the process of trial and error, success and failure. All of these factors will, in the long run, help you become a better gambler. They will also lead you to thinking out-of-the-box. This will help you find “value” where other gamblers are unable to do so and may lead you to win the jackpot online or at the bookies. A great place to start your winning journey is 22Bet Sportsbook. They cover every sporting activity under the sun. They also offer all new players a fantastic welcome bonus of 122% up to €100! 

Confirmation Bias In Football

By using a logical analysis when dealing with sports betting will lead to a change in the way you look at the sport in question. A great example of confirmation bias in football revolves around a player whose tactics are a little wild. He’s the guy you find in most teams. He always makes outrageous moves in every game. Whether taking a shot at goal from 50 yards out, trying to single-handedly make an impossible run through five defenders, or even using a risky backheel, you probably recognise this guy. Yet every blue moon one of those tactics will playoff and he will score an absolute stunner of a goal. One that nobody was expecting.  And everyone will rejoice at hitting the football jackpot.

Because after all of those hundreds of failed efforts, one was successful, confirmation bias will leave the player to believe that his tactics are correct. But looking at the numbers, with a logical eye, we can see they are an abysmal failure. Of course, it’s not just the player who is to blame in this situation. Fawning and adoring fans, as well as the whole football media, will heap praise on and encourage the player to continue with his faulty gameplay. An effective football player makes moves when the occasions are aligned to the possibility of scoring.  Conversely, an ineffectual player is just looking for glory even when there’s no possible opportunity to find it. Keep in mind that just because something worked once, doesn’t mean it will work again.

Confirmation Bias In Online Business

Another example is if you’re running an online business, and you have a particularly good sales day. The feeling can be similar to winning a bet. In fact, there are many similarities between running a business and sports betting. The main takeaway is that you will fail if you sell a poor product. With both of these activities, as soon as you taste some success, then the mind turns to ways to both capitalise and expand. In a business, this means more marketing and advertising. In sports betting it means the gambler will start looking at other betting markets and new sports to indulge in.

But it’s important to understand that just because something started well doesn’t mean that it will continue to do so. Likewise, if something didn’t work at the beginning then that’s no reason to necessarily stop, because it may well work later on. The key to enjoying sports betting is not to bet everything on the farm just because you feel a previous promising result has confirmed your existing bias. It’s much better to have multiple betting strategies going at the same time. Your job as a responsible gambler is to continuously monitor the progress of each one of these strategies. Whilst at the same time refining your methods as much as possible. In other words, it’s not necessarily about looking for success. But rather ensuring that you avoid huge defeats.

Biased Sports Betting Psychology

Here at Jackpotfinder.com, we try to look at the whole betting industry through realistic lenses.  On the whole, we don’t encourage gamblers to live on hope. Or by simply having their fingers crossed whenever they place a wager. This is not the way to help anyone achieve the goal of winning at casino jackpot games or sports betting. One reason is that we don’t regard “hope”  as a factor that should be considered when placing bets. It’s much better to look at the mathematics and find an advantage within the house edge or the odds. For example, some of the best odds can be found at 22Bet Sportsbook. Being an online bookie saves them costs, which they can then pass on to their customers.

But for that to happen, then we need to dump all of our preconceived ideas. And especially those that come from confirmation bias.  We should be constantly looking for new evidence not sticking to the old. Likewise, we should always be trying to educate ourselves to move forward and therefore better our possibilities. To a degree, we are all susceptible to confirmation bias. So it’s important to have critical thinking abilities. These will help you to step back and define what it is in reality that has brought you your gambling successes.  Only through a more realistic and scientific approach, do you have any possibility of winning either at the sports field or at the casino gaming tables.

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