Casino Superstitions and Gambling Luck
Casino Superstitions and Gambling Luck
Lots of gamblers believe in casino superstitions. Unfortunately, here at Jackpotfinder we’re all very pragmatic and tend to be a hard-nosed realist. There’s no room for superstitions or any other form of “magical” thinking. We look at casino games through a mathematical lens and leave all the mumbo-jumbo at the casino door. Still, having said that, let’s have a look at superstitions and luck from the point of view of a punter.
Luck in Gambling Is Just Statistical Deviation
First things first. Probability. This is something that needs to be understood before any discussion about luck. Essentially, if you have some uncertain events, then you can measure the likelihood of one or more of these things happening using probability. In the same way that you might measure time in minutes and seconds, so the measurement of probability is just as exact. The only difference is that random events are, by their nature, random. So though you can make predictions, you can never be certain of an outcome.
A good example of this would be the 2016 US election. Everyone and their dog thought that Hilary Clinton would be a shoo-in. But even though she enjoyed a 70% chance in some polls, she went on to lose. Whatever the probability, unless it’s 100%, then there’s always the possibility of a loss.
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Casino Superstitions: Long or Short Run
If someone is gambling at a specific rate, then based on probability, you’d expect them to win or lose. But if we’re looking at it from a short-term perspective, then, as with all random events,, it’s impossible to predict the outcome. In some ways, the ultimate example of a short term event is a one-off, single event. An example would be betting on the red or the black at the roulette table. The odds of betting on, say, the black is 47.37% probability of winning. That means that the casino has a 52.63% chance of coming out on top.
But with this single event, you’ll either win or lose. You don’t get 47.37% of your money back….it’s all or nothing. it follows that if there are two random events in a row, then you can either win both, lose both of win one and lose one. Though they might not be equally likely, you’ll be left with one of these results.
What Kinds of Things Don’t Affect Probability?
Casino superstitious can make gamblers believe that certain outside influences can affect the result of a bet. For example, you might think that by wearing your lucky hat, the probability of you winning any jackpot games will change. As a superstitious gambler, you really think that the hat in some way makes you luckier. A realist believes that no external force can affect the probability of an event occurring. In fact, the number of ways an event can unfold is dependent on two factors, the number of different ways an event can happen compared to the total number of possible events.
Back to the roulette wheel. There are a total number of 38 numbers of which 18 of them are red. So if you bet on the red, then you have an 18/38 possibility of winning. This fraction is the same as 47.37%. That number isn’t affected by the hat you happen to wear to the roulette table or the rabbit’s foot you’re clutching in your pocket. Obviously, if your magical objects really worked, and with the casino house edge so relatively small, then you’d be getting very rich each time you played. But you’re not!
Why Are Gamblers Superstitious?
Going back to prehistoric times, the human brain has been “programmed” to look for patterns in things. This is part and parcel of our instinct to survive. So, the brain is constantly adding significance to things, even if that significance is just plain wrong. Couple this with something called “confirmation bias” and you have a recipe for irrational thought. If we’re talking about confirmation bias in terms of the casino, then look no further than a gambler who only talks about his winning sessions. Notice that he never recounted any tales of losses. In fact, he’s probably certain that he’s won more money than lost.
Casino Superstitions: What About Psychic Powers?
Oh dear…are we really going to venture down this road? This is the realm of the silly and the feeble-minded. Having said that there are an awful lot of people who believe in this stuff. They spend a fortune every year on bogus information about their future. Have a look online, and you’ll find literally thousands of books on the subject. But none of this makes it any truer. They really believe that psychic powers will provide them with the latest jackpot winning tips and tricks.
Casino Superstitions: Magician James Randi
The James Randi Educational Foundation once had an offer of one million dollars to whoever can prove that psychic powers exist. The challenge was on offer between 1964 to 2015. Even famous psychics like Sylvia Browne didn’t go and have a try to win. No one ever won the award. According to Randi himself, the actual tests would take less than 15 minutes to perform. So in almost 50 years, no one was able to prove psychic powers actually existed. Obviously, they were all too busy winning the lottery and cleaning up all the chips at the casino. Not!
What About the Gamblers Fallacy, Is That a Superstition, Too?
We often mention the Gambler’s Fallacy. This is the mistaken belief that past events can have influence over the probability of future events. If you toss a coin six times and all are heads, then the Gambler’s Fallacy says that it’s now “due” tails. It forgets that each action starts the probability from zero, and it therefore an independent action. The past has no say in the outcome. Whether we’d call you superstitious for this belief is another matter. We like to think that you simply haven’t grasped the theory of probability. But, yeah, it’s really a form of casino superstitions.
In nearly all casino betting games, you must remember that each bet is on an individual event. Whatever came before is of no consequence on the event to follow. Hell, that’s why we call them “independent” events in the first place! Now with some games, the probabilities do change as the game progresses. Blackjack is a good example of this. As the cards are dealt, then the composition of the deck changes. And that in turn will have an effect on how you play and the probabilities involved.
If There’s No Such Thing as Luck, How Can I Win at Gambling?
With the vast majority of casino games, there’s no changing the odds. There’s nothing you can do that will have any effect on the result. That being said, there are some games, like poker and blackjack, whereby you can exert some influence. The problem is that, for most players to win at a more or less consistent level, requires more than luck. As a gambler, you’ll need to put in the work and make the effort to learn about probability and how it affects your game.
With the playing of blackjack, you can always count the cards. With sportsbooks, you can find those inequalities in the odds being offered by the sportsbooks themselves. And if you happen to be playing real money jackpot poker, then there are skills you can use to get a mathematical edge over your opponent. And though these three gambling activities really do represent the only forms of gambling whereby you can affect the outcome, please note that this has nothing to do with psychic powers or lucky charms.
It’s perfectly possible to get lucky at the casino. But you have no control over that. Essentially, you’re just playing and seeing what comes to pass. On the other hand, an advantage player is playing to a perfect strategy, keeping in mind odds and probability as well as other factors. So he’s more likely to win, as he has both luck and the added ingredient of skill.
Conclusion: Casino Superstitions
Being the boringly realistic guys we are, we would suggest that you take off your lucky hat and throw away that rabbit’s foot. If you want to increase your jackpot winning chances, then these casino superstitions aren’t going to help you at all. If you really want to start winning at casino games, then chose the right game. And then put in the time and effort to study it through and through. In this way, you’ll end up just like any of those successful poker pros you’ll see on TV. If that’s not for you, then you should look upon casino gambling games as entertainment. Nothing more.
There is luck in gambling. But you could just call this a matter of deviation in the short term. In the long term, every gambler will be getting the same cards over and over. So we suggest that you remain realistic, like us. Budget correctly for your fun and you’ll still have a fabulous time, even if all your bankrolls gone at the end of the evening.
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