Betting Results – How To Know If They Come From Luck Or Skill
Are My Betting Results Down To Luck Or Skill?
There’s probably some truth in the idea that many gamblers will blame their losses on bad luck. And the wins, on their own skill. This is probably just part of human nature. But it leads to an interesting question. How can you tell whether your betting results, good or bad, are the result of luck or skill? Let’s have a look and see if it’s possible to answer this question to any degree of accuracy.
Betting Results: A Large Enough Sample Size?
Sometimes you hear the term “beginner’s luck.” Someone who’s never bet before may experience some good fortune from just a few bets playing their first jackpot games. But to understand whether this is down to luck or skill, we need a much bigger sample size. And this in turn needs to be over a considerable period of time. As with all statistics, the more betting results you have at your disposal then the more accurately you will be able to verify the cause of those results. To this end, we need to collect as many data points as we possibly can.
In one case study using a famous online casino, the players made a very positive start finding a plus 5.77% ROI when they placed around 2,000 bets. But as time passed, and over 17,000 bets, then the overall yield turned negative and resulted in a losing strategy with an overall ROI of -0.63%. Keep in mind that many winning streaks are nothing more than luck. In other words, the casino player never had an edge from the beginning. Other examples of winning streaks can be down to temporary opportunities that opened up but closed as time passed. Finally, we have what are called “meaningful stakes” which are the result of a sound and skilled strategy. But without enough data, you will never know which is which.
If I Stick To Level Stakes, How Does My Strategy look?
You’ll find it surprisingly easy to devise your own betting strategy once you’ve analysed your past betting behaviour and betting results. Looking back, you can see when your bets were profitable and under what conditions. Then you’ll be able to structure your future bets around this information. But do keep in mind this doesn’t necessarily mean that your strategy is going to be profitable. One rule you should keep in mind is that any selection system that is not capable of producing a profit on a level stake basis will not profit under any betting plan.
For example, if you’re betting huge bets and think they’re the only reason that you are in a positive ROI%, then it’s important to unify that impact from your overall data analysis to ensure that the results are due to your performance. It’s important to try and make all the stakes in your sample an equal size. Then if your results are both steady and positive, it will suggest that they are down to skill as opposed to luck. If you’re looking for a great ROI%, then you could do much worse than using 22Bet Sportsbook. They offer, not only great odds but also a fantastic welcome bonus of 122% up to €100 for all new players. By stretching your bankroll, in effect, you’re helping move the odds into your favour.
Check out 22BET’s Betting Markets if You are Looking for Something Special
The Two Types Of Level Risk Taking
When it comes to level risk staking plans there are two types. The first is that you will stake the same amount of risk for each bet irrespective of the odds. For example, if the odds are 2.5 or 10.00, you still bet exactly the same amount. You will still need to calculate the correct risk or liability percentage, especially for lay bets. The second form of the risk-taking plan involves you determining the overall risk from reading the odds. This accounts for the implied chance of winning. So we can place high stakes on lows and low stakes on high odds. Looking at the betting results, we can see and even profit from any win, no matter what the odds were. The main takeaway is that with both of these plans, the end results should be more or less the same.
Betting Results: The Reasoning Behind My Strategy
There’s no point in having a gambling strategy if you are unaware as to why it works when it does. And why it doesn’t work when it doesn’t. The first thing is to try and identify a pattern that produces great results. Study these to find out exactly the reasons why those betting results are happening. At some point, you should be able to see exactly where the edge comes into play. Once you can find this point then you’ll be able to separate skill from luck as you go forward. And then be able to increase your jackpot winning chances.
This leads to the question of where the edge might come from? There are a number of possible factors including the following:
Inside Information
If you’re a sports gambler and have some inside information that would give you an advantage. Although it’s wise to keep in mind this would actually be criminal!
Obscure Findings
Through studying the data you can discover a new trend that many of the crafty bookmaker markets have missed. This can work especially well if you are dealing with small betting markets that are either less popular or underdeveloped.
Speed
By finding a way to be faster than other gamblers will allow you to find value odds before the public moves them or they completely disappear. Speed is one means by which most professional sports traders are able to secure an advantage and is the reason they are able to win the jackpot online more than other gamblers.
Capitalism
Some bettors base their entire betting results strategy around the errors that bookmakers and other bettors make. In many cases, this involves finding pricing errors where, for example, the odds are far too good to be true.
All of the above factors will have a winning strategy with an edge of some kind. If you head over to 22Bet Sportsbook, you can try all of the above in order to find value bets that will put you ahead of the betting competition.
How Is Variance Affecting My Betting Results?
We’re all aware that in sports betting there can be an outcome that seems impossible. Keep in mind that if you are looking at data, then a rare 1,000 to 1 winner will distort your data set. This can also go in the opposite direction. You can lose a 1.01 wager that you thought was going to be a “dead cert.”
We suggest that when you’re doing your data analysis, you eliminate the extremes. Another way of doing this is by capping the odds. This will help ensure that luck plays a lesser part in your overall results. Providing you don’t have any against-the-odds-wins inflating your overall figures, then skill should prevail. There may well be considerable variance in your performance as time goes forward. But you’ll find that your ROI% will start to converge until it finds the place where it belongs. A good example to consider is a casino with a fixed house edge on a game like roulette. Now we all know that the house doesn’t always win on every spin. In fact, it will go through many ups and downs. But over time, the house edge advantage will reveal itself in their profits.
Betting Results: Can I Beat The Closing Line/Starting Price?
A good professional sports bettor will be able to consistently beat the closing line or start price. And this will yield positive betting results. We suggest that you always monitor the start prices at bookmakers and betting exchanges. By being able to back the better odds, then it’s a solid confirmation that your results are not just down to Lady Luck. So if you want to verify whether you’re beating the closing line, then you should simply use an internet site. Look for one with an automatic bet tracker tool. Also one with analytics and a bankroll management tool. Using these as online jackpot guides, you’ll be able to track a significant number of your sports bets. It’ll then be easier to determine whether your wins are down to skill or simply a matter of luck.
Click here to visit the 22BET Sportsbook
