NFL Prop Bets: Will the First Score Be a TD, Field Goal or Safety?
While many NFL prop bets are pure sideshow-type wagers made only for fun, i.e. the famous “coin toss” prop, other markets can actually provide some decent opportunities – if you’re willing to do a bit of research. Within this detailed description, we look at what makes NFL prop bets unique to others.
An Introduction to NFL Prop Bets
On JackpotFinder, we give punters some strategies regarding the popular “Which team will score first?” proposition offerings; and others of this kind. This piece will take a look at other typical NFL prop bets offered at most reputable online sportsbooks. Moerover, we will be looking at the bets such as “Will the first score be a touchdown, field goal or safety?” Tune in for more.
Know your Stats
The first obvious step before investing in this proposition bet would be to learn the basic ratios. Picking an NFL season at random and therefore looking at numbers for 2008, we find the frequency of each score to be the following.
Touchdown: 1,225 (57.9%)
Field goal: 870 (41.1%)
Safety: 21 (<1%)
So at face value, the odds offered on this prop in an average game would be somewhere around 11/6, 11/4 and 1,000/1 for touchdown, field goal and safety, respectively, if figuring straightforward probability plus the 10% juice most online sportsbooks, like BetOnline charge.
But even beyond considering the specific teams involved in a given game, the numbers need to be adjusted slightly to account for the fact that more field goals occur at the end of halves, particularly the first. We have a guide about Yards per Play for your information.
Frequency of Field Goals
Most estimates put the frequency of field goals as the last score of the first half at 50%; we’ll also use this nice round number. At 2,116 scores in 256 regular-season games, that’s just about 8.25 scores per game. A further breaking down into about 4.75 touchdowns and 3.5 field goals in the average NFL match (or, put another way, the average over/under would be 43.75).
However, with the adjusted statistics, the odds of the first score being a touchdown rises to over 73%. In turn, that means that 3/2 would be a typical offering in this prop. Anything too derivative from this line (say by 15% or more) is worth a look. An extreme line in this prop may be simply due to porous defenses or weak offenses.
In the 2008 season example cited above, the bottom quarter of teams managed the following: A combined 200 touchdowns, 194 field goals and five safeties, or just 3.1 scores per team per game. And with a TD-to-FG ratio skewed by 10% or so. While knowing the basic odds are good, as ever, the specifics must be known to play the “Which team will score first?”
Remember, too, that the 50% probability of a field goal on the half’s last scoring possession is a valuable weapon. This is especially true in live in-game betting, should you be playing that.
Putting NFL Prop Bets to Use
Thus, if you’re going to want to try your luck with prop bets, the key factors are statistics. Another important thing to consider is form. A team which is one a winning run can be expected to continue such a streak. By following this strategy then placing bets with GTBets on props after looking at the statistics, you’re set for some big wins. You can read more about US Football betting in our guide: NFL Wagering Types. These include Future Betting and our Simplified NFL Betting Strategies.
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