Tips on How to Win Parlay Bets
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With the big games coming up, it’s no surprise you want to know how to win parlay bets. As the NFL divisional playoffs approach, 32 initial contenders are now just eight. This weekend four more teams will bite the dust, and with them, countless Super Bowl futures tickets. Though you might be feeling smug if you’re sitting on a Saints futures wager at +10,000, with New Orleans now listed at just +965 at Pinnacle Sportsbook. But your nails are still in for a gnashing before you can pop the champagne. So, let’s have a look at how to win Parlay bets.
Introduction: How to Win Parlay Bets
Everyone loves a Cinderella story except a bookie. And, more often than not, David won’t actually get the better of Goliath. Plus it doesn’t matter how close you get, if your team doesn’t go all the way. Then, your ticket is not worth the paper it’s written on.
For those players holding a 100/1 Saints’ ticket, they will reap a handsome return on a minimal investment. Of course that’s if New Orleans hoists the Vince Lombardi Trophy. For the rest of us, there is some consolation in knowing that they probably would have received a higher payoff with a simple win parlay on Sean Payton’s side.
When bookies, like BetOnline, deal futures markets, they try to maintain some semblance of a balanced action. And, not surprisingly, they attempt to limit the liability on the worst-case scenario. Due to a large number of bettors playing long shots, this can often lead to grossly depressed prices on underdogs. On the positive side though, this may lead to solid value on favorites.
Favourites
At Pinnacle Sports Betting, futures markets are normally priced between 110% and 135%. Though this does depend on the size of the field. This compares favorably to futures markets of greater than 200% at most traditional sportsbooks. Even though this represents excellent value on the Pinnacle Sports betting futures markets, often even these margins won’t properly reward long shot players.
So here’s a good strategy when it gets to the playoffs. Try to estimate the moneyline quote of the team you like for each remaining game including the Super Bowl. After estimating the prices for the team to win through, you’ll be able to calculate the estimated parlay price. Then simply compare the projected price for the parlay, to the odds on the futures market. At this point you’ll find out whether the future or a win parlay would give you the best possible return on investment.
How To calculate Parlays
To calculate a parlay, first work out the decimal value for each moneyline quote. If the quote is positive ‘+’, simply divide the moneyline by 100, and add 1. For example, if the moneyline is +200 the decimal quote is (200/100) + 1 = 2.00 + 1 = 3.00
If the moneyline quote is negative ‘-‘ simply add 100 to the moneyline quote. Then divide by the original moneyline quote. For example, if the moneyline is -135 the decimal quote is (235/135) = 1.7407
Then multiply all of the decimal quotes by each other and subtract 1 from the answer. Remember that there are no set payoffs for tying a number of teams together in parlays for baseball. So you can use this same simple formula to work out your baseball parlays as well when the boys of summer return. We have a separate article on what exactly is a Parlay Bet.
For Instance
By way of example, assuming the Saints win through and play the Bears in the NFC Championship Game and the Chargers in Super Bowl XLI, I would guesstimate that the line would be somewhere around Saints +4 (ML +185) versus Chicago and +7 (ML +265) against San Diego, if those games were played today. Therefore, a simple win parlay on the Saints in each game would be calculated as follows:
1.439 * 2.85 * 3.65 = 14.97 = c. 14/1 = +1397
By simply parlaying the moneyline, you’ll find that a parlay will pay more than the future odds. While it seems from the above example that futures bettors on New Orleans are shortchanged. This is typical of long shots in any futures market. It’s also worth noting that the win parlay odds are often higher. This comes despite the moneyline quote on the underdog in these do or die games usually being much lower than the ML quote for the corresponding point spread during the regular season.
How To Win Parlay Bets: Hedging Out
When a bettor holds a ‘live’ futures ticket worth a large payout, the player may want to hedge out of their position during the later stages of the playoffs by placing a large wager on an opponent. While hedging out of a position is a way to lock in a profit, keep in mind that any hedge will result in laying additional vigorish, the bookmaker’s cut for taking your bet. This can be offset somewhat by playing at a low vig sports book like Pinnacle Sports Book. Doing so offers players up to 60% better value on NFL sides than traditional sportsbooks. In general, though, this is another potential benefit of playing a win parlay versus a future.
Winning
With a parlay win, bettors can simply pocket some winnings from previous games. Of course, the winning parlay doesn’t sound as glamorous as a high payout ticket. However, at least the bettor will be getting the best available odds for their long shot.
