How to Bet Using Yards Per Play Statistics

How to Bet Using Yards per Play Statistics

Yards per play statistics are a nice weapon in the war of NFL football betting. It’s not one of the more common letter combinations (Y/P) being bandied about by play-and-play guys during Sunday games. But the letters Y/P are often the single best indicator of offensive efficiency – and defensive inefficiency.

These days, wildly imbalanced pointspreads are harder and harder to find. With “parity” such a buzzword, fewer and fewer punters are willing to play. More especially a double-digit underdog at the online sportsbook, like Intertops Sportsbook. However, a comparison of Y/P can reveal some serious mismatches the bookmakers are hesitant to label with a huge pointspread. This is for reasons of public appeal.

Find Yards Per Play Online

You can easily find yards per play numbers at any major website with NFL news. We suggest that you should probably start your search with ESPN.com or NFL.com.  Although you may have to retrieve the information from two different pages (offensive stats and defensive stats). Now simply make a list of each team’s performance in their categories. Then you need to calculate the difference by subtracting Y/P allowed from Y/P earned. Entering the info into a spreadsheet program will make it even easier. But again, this may be the simplest math you ever have to do in preparing bets.

Now, the Y/P differential is not the be-all and end-all. But you will want to seriously consider any game pitting a top-five Y/P team against a bottom-five Y/P. Simply put, a bottom-five ranking would indicate a tendency to give up big plays and/or an inability to move the ball.

Look At The Tables

Toward the top of the table, you’ll want to be careful about overestimating the teams. Always keep the previous schedule in mind. If the positive numbers are all coming from easy victories over weak division rivals, discount that team rapidly. Just as with all statistics, Y/P comparisons get more accurate with more games played against a more varied schedule. That seems logical.

Assigning Points Per Yard

There is one important estimate figure you should look at when you’re employing the yards per play comparison.  Notice how speculators may assign one point scored for every 0.15 Y/P. This puts the statistic into more concrete terms. And it shows how a deceptively small numbers become huge over the course of an entire game: A team with a 0.9 Y/P rating (typically a top-five team in the category) has a 12- to 13-point advantage against a porous -1.0 Y/P side.

How to Bet Using Yards per Play Statistics: Conclusion

Just remembering that this is only one statistic. So it should not be the only basis for determining winners. but we suggest that punters should use the Y/P as an indicator of potential mismatches. That’s a different spin on things. And it may be more illuminating in the long run. When two teams bringing in extreme Y/P numbers meet, that’s a big red flag for the would-be punter. More importantly, it’s also a good opportunity to beat a major site like BetOnline Sportsbook or any online sports betting site. Knowledge is key! Before you place a wager, have a look through our guide to sports betting. For those interested in the NFL, we have a couple of guides: Future Betting and NFL Betting Strategies.